Rossiya va Ukrainadagi vaziyatning to'qimachilik sanoatiga ta'siri

Rossiya va Ukrainadagi vaziyatning to'qimachilik sanoatiga ta'siri

1. Xom ashyo ko'tarilmoqda

Sanoat va axborot texnologiyalari vazirligi ma'lumotlariga ko'ra, 130 dan ortiq asosiy asosiy kimyoviy materiallar orasida Xitoyda navlarning 32 foizi hali ham bo'sh, navlarning 52 foizi hali ham import qilinadi. Yuqori{3}}elektron kimyoviy moddalar, yuqori{4}}funktsional materiallar, yuqori-poliolefinlar, aromatik uglevodorodlar, kimyoviy tolalar va boshqalar va yuqoridagi mahsulotlarning aksariyati va sanoat zanjiri segmentlarga bo'lingan. xom ashyo asosiy quyma kimyoviy xom ashyolarga tegishli.

Xitoyda 30 dan ortiq turdagi kimyoviy mahsulotlar asosan xorijdan import qilinayotganini va ularning ba'zilari yuqori-mahsulot kabi yuqori darajadagi monopoliyali mahsulotlar, masalan, adiponitril, geksametilen diamin, yuqori{ {2}}oxirgi titan dioksidi va silikon. Yil boshidan buyon ushbu mahsulotlarning narxlari tendentsiyasi asta-sekin o'sib bordi, maksimal o'sish 8200 yuan / tonnani tashkil etdi, bu deyarli 30 foizga o'sdi.

2. Neftning xalqaro narxi 110 AQSh dollaridan oshdi,

polyester qisqa narx yoki mart oyida nisbatan kuchli

The "financial nuclear weapons" button was pressed, and oil prices shot up again. On February 26, Western powers such as the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada issued a joint statement, announcing that several major Russian banks were prohibited from using the SWIFT international settlement system; the European Parliament passed a resolution to limit the import of oil and gas from Russia and implement new Investment ban, severing its ties with SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. The market panic has continued to expand, and market participants have begun to worry about whether there will be follow-up measures such as energy sanctions.

Sanctions against Russia continued to escalate, the market worried that Russia's energy supply would be interrupted, and international oil prices soared. On March 2, international crude oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude futures rose 3.44 percent to 110.91 a barrel, the highest since 2014. WTI crude oil futures rose more than 5 percent to US109.13 per barrel. At present, it is unlikely that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will ease in the short term. With the continuous interpretation of this incident, the risk factors of oil prices have not been lifted, and the risk premium will continue to increase. , there are currently market forecasts for oil prices to rise to 140 per barrel or even higher.

According to past experience, the crude oil market has risen sharply, and the polyester polyester market must follow! From a recent point of view, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has affected the market nerves, the staged upward trend of crude oil is irreversible, the pattern of weak supply and strong demand continues, and the market's bullish sentiment will not diminish, which will drive the speed of market shipments to accelerate in the short term.

Ukraina va Rossiyadagi geosiyosiy muammolar so'nggi paytlarda neft narxining ko'tarilishining eng asosiy omili hisoblanadi. Xalqaro neft narxlari bozorida ba'zi salbiy omillar mavjud bo'lsa-da, masalan, Eronning potentsial ta'minoti bo'yicha AQShda slanets gazini etkazib berish ortishi mumkin va AQSh dollari bosqichma-bosqich mustahkamlanadi, ammo bozor hali ham ko'proq geosiyosiy masalalarga e'tibor qaratmoqda. Salbiy omillar zaiflashdi. Keyingi davrda, mart oyidan keyin PTA sanoatiga texnik xizmat ko'rsatish va yukni kamaytirish rejalari ko'proq jamlangan bo'lishi kutilmoqda. PTA bozori asta-sekin kichik zaxira holatini ko'rsatishi kutilmoqda; ammo etilen glikol to'planishda davom etadi.

Ukrainaning hozirgi muammosi neft narxini rag'batlantirishda davom etishi mumkin, ammo AQShning xom neft zaxiralari o'sishda davom etmoqda va AQSh yana strategik zaxiralarini bo'shatishni ko'rib chiqmoqda, Eron muammosi muammosiz davom etmoqda va OPEK plyus ishlab chiqarishni oshirish rejasiga amal qilishi mumkin. mart oyining boshidagi uchrashuv. Hozirgi vaqtda neft bozori hali ham bir-biri bilan chambarchas bog'liq, qisqa muddatli-Yoki tez-tez zarba berish tendentsiyasi davom etmoqda. Neft narxiga kelsak, mart oyida polyester shtapel tolasining asoslariga bosim yo'qligi va asosiy xom ashyo etkazib berish sezilarli darajada qisqarishi kutilayotganda, shtapel tolasi narxi nisbatan kuchli bo'lishi kutilmoqda.